The US stock market is exhibiting several indicators reminiscent of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, with market valuations reaching unprecedented levels. NVIDIA's market capitalization now represents 3.6% of global GDP and 13.4% of US GDP, surpassing the entire stock markets of the UK, France, or Germany. The Warren Buffett indicator, which measures the US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio, has hit a record 210%, a 45 percentage point increase over the past three months and well above the Dot-Com peak of approximately 144%. The US accounts for about 50% of the global stock market value despite comprising less than 5% of the world's population, while the European Union holds 9.8% of global market capitalization with 9.1% of the population. US tech stocks dominate the market, with the top 10 stocks comprising 39% of the S&P 500, up from 27% at the Dot-Com peak, yet these companies generate only 30% of the index's earnings, a gap that is widening. Market speculation is rising sharply, with the Speculative Trading Indicator experiencing one of the steepest three-month increases ever recorded, surpassed only by the Dot-Com Bubble and the 2021 meme stock frenzy. The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on the S&P 500 stands at 38.8 times, the highest since the Dot-Com Bubble burst, and higher than 96% of historical readings. Margin debt surpassed $1 trillion in June for the first time since 2021 and is expected to approach $1.1 trillion in July, reflecting heightened risk appetite among retail investors. Call options constitute 68% of total options volume, near the 2021 meme stock frenzy peak of 72%, compared to 42% during the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, US money market fund assets, although reaching a record nominal $7.9 trillion, represent only about 13.4% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, below the historical average of 19%, indicating limited potential inflows into stocks. Consumer debt is also rising, with "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) transactions projected to reach $116.7 billion in 2025, doubling the 2022 total and seven times the 2020 level. In the auto industry, buyers are accumulating debt amid record negative equity levels, with 26.6% of trade-ins underwater in Q2 according to Edmunds. Additionally, top earners in the US are increasingly falling behind on credit card and car payments. Industry leaders note ongoing margin pressures from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), inventory constraints, shifts toward electric vehicles (EVs), and the impact of artificial intelligence reshaping business development centers (BDCs).

A raft of economic releases on Wednesday showed a widening growth gap between the United States and Europe. The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.0% annualised pace in the second quarter, handily beating the 2.6% consensus and reversing a 0.5% contraction in the previous three months, according to the Commerce Department’s advance estimate. The rebound was driven largely by a 30% plunge in imports, which added more than five percentage points to headline growth, and by a 1.4% rise in consumer spending. Price pressures eased: the GDP price index slowed to 2.0% and the core PCE price gauge to 2.5%, both down more than a full percentage point from the first quarter. Across the Atlantic, euro-area output edged up just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% from a year earlier, after 0.6% growth in the prior quarter. National data were mixed: France outperformed with 0.3% growth, but Germany and Italy each slipped 0.1%, and the Netherlands managed only a 0.1% gain. France’s resilience was underpinned by a 0.6% jump in June consumer spending, while German retail sales rose 1.0% yet failed to prevent an overall GDP dip. Inflation pressures in parts of the bloc are re-emerging. Spain’s flash consumer-price index accelerated to 2.7% in July, the highest since February, with core inflation at 2.3%. The diverging growth and price patterns complicate the policy outlook for both the Federal Reserve, which concludes a meeting later today, and the European Central Bank ahead of its September decision.

China’s economy expanded 5.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, marginally beating the 5.1% consensus and keeping Beijing on track to meet its full-year growth goal of “around 5%.” On a seasonally adjusted basis, output rose 1.1% from the previous quarter, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Tuesday. June activity figures were mixed. Industrial production grew 6.8% year-on-year, the fastest pace since March and well above expectations, as manufacturers front-loaded exports ahead of higher US tariffs. Retail sales, however, slowed to 4.8%, the weakest reading since January–February and below market forecasts, signalling fragile household demand. The surveyed urban unemployment rate held at 5.0%. Economists said the headline GDP beat masks underlying headwinds from a protracted property slump, soft consumer spending and the risk that Washington’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports—imposed in April after a temporary truce—will weigh more heavily in the second half. Analysts widely expect Beijing to step up fiscal support and targeted monetary easing when top leaders meet later this month to shore up momentum.

China’s gross domestic product is on track to reach about 140 trillion yuan (US$19.5 trillion) this year, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a State Council Information Office briefing in Beijing on 9 July. Over the entire 14th Five-Year Plan period running from 2021 to 2025, the economy’s cumulative expansion is projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan (US$4.89 trillion), a gain Zheng noted is larger than the output of the world’s third-largest economy. Real GDP grew an average 5.5 percent in 2021-24, with domestic demand contributing roughly 86 percent of that growth. Officials said foreign direct investment reached 4.7 trillion yuan (US$657 billion) between 2021 and May 2025, already surpassing the inflows recorded during the previous five-year plan. Energy consumption per unit of GDP has fallen 11.6 percent since 2021, while the country has added more than 12 million urban jobs annually and retained its status as the world’s largest manufacturing nation for 15 consecutive years. Zheng added that external restrictions on technology would only reinforce China’s drive for innovation and self-reliance as policymakers press ahead with the remaining targets of the current five-year blueprint.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.0% annualised pace in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s advance estimate. The rebound exceeded economists’ median projection of about 2.5% and followed a 0.5% contraction in the first three months of 2025, signalling that activity regained momentum after a tariff-related setback early in the year. A steep drop in imports provided the largest boost to headline growth, offsetting slower domestic momentum. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of output, rose 1.4%, down from the first-quarter clip yet still supportive. Final sales to private domestic purchasers—a gauge of underlying demand—advanced a modest 1.2%, while business investment cooled. Price pressures eased. The GDP price index increased 2.0% and the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure rose 2.5%, both slightly below prior-quarter rates and close to the central bank’s 2% objective. The data come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today, with investors weighing whether moderating inflation and solid, but not overheating, demand leave scope for rate cuts as soon as September. Trade frictions remain a wildcard. The report shows growth continuing despite the 145% tariff on Chinese goods introduced in April and a broader escalation of duties on multiple partners. Economists cautioned that the boost from falling imports may prove temporary if households and firms rebuild inventories in coming quarters.

China's economy is projected to achieve a five-year economic increment exceeding 35 trillion yuan (approximately $4.89 trillion) during the 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2021 to 2025, according to Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This growth surpasses the combined economic output of China's three largest provinces—Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong—as well as the Yangtze River Delta region, and exceeds the GDP of the world's third-largest economy. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan ($19.5 trillion) in 2025. From 2021 to 2024, China maintained an average GDP growth rate of 5.5%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year to 66.05 trillion yuan ($9.21 trillion) in the first half of 2025. Despite global challenges including the pandemic and trade tensions, China's economy demonstrated resilience and steady improvement, with retail sales of consumer goods rising 5% and industrial enterprise output increasing by 6.4% during the same period. Officials expect the economy to maintain steady growth in the second half of 2025.

Argentina's economy demonstrated robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). This growth rate surpasses that of China, which recorded a 5.4% increase in the same period. Private consumption reached its highest historical level with an 11.6% annual increase, while private investment surged 31.8% compared to the previous quarter, driven mainly by machinery, equipment, and transportation investments. Government consumption, however, declined by 0.8%. Inflation has dropped significantly, with monthly inflation falling to 1.5% in May, the lowest in over five years, contributing to an annual inflation rate of 43.5%, down from 211% before. Wage growth outpaced inflation, with salaries rising 74.3% year-on-year in April against a 47.3% inflation rate, resulting in a real wage increase of 18.3%. Poverty rates have also declined markedly under President Javier Milei's administration, from 54.8% in early 2024 to 31.7% in the first quarter of 2025, with indigence rates falling from 20.2% to 7.3%. The poverty rate in Buenos Aires specifically dropped to 19.9%, the lowest since early 2022. Economic activity continued its upward trajectory in April 2025, growing 7.7% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month, with finance and construction sectors experiencing substantial gains. The government projects Argentina to be the fastest-growing economy in Latin America in 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 5.5% and 4%, respectively, according to BBVA. President Milei is also banking on a shale-oil boom from the Vaca Muerta basin to sustain and solidify his libertarian economic reforms ahead of the 2027 elections. The economic team forecasts a stable dollar and an inflation rate of 22.7% by the end of the year.

Britain’s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, slowing from the 0.7% pace seen at the start of the year but topping economists’ forecasts for a far weaker reading, according to preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics. The modest growth was led by a 0.4% increase in services and a 1.2% rise in construction, which together offset a 0.3% contraction in manufacturing and other production industries. Monthly data showed output rising 0.4% in June, suggesting momentum heading into the third quarter despite the drag from softer hiring and continuing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said the figures offered “positive” evidence that the recovery is broadening, while analysts noted that the stronger-than-expected headline lifted sterling and tempered market bets on near-term Bank of England rate cuts. Policymakers will now weigh the surprise resilience in activity against still-elevated inflation as they set policy for the rest of the year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.0%, up from 2.8% projected in April, citing reduced impact from the US-China trade war and a weaker US dollar. The IMF also increased its 2025 growth estimates for major economies, including China, whose forecast was raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity and policy support. The US growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 1.9% from 1.8%, with the 2026 forecast also lifted to 2.0%. Meanwhile, the Eurozone's 2025 growth estimate remains steady at 0.7%. For Mexico, the IMF expects a modest GDP growth of 0.2% in 2025, an upward revision from a previous forecast of a 0.3% contraction, despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Mexico's economy grew 0.7% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing market expectations, with a 1.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by expansions in the secondary and tertiary sectors, including manufacturing and investment. Household incomes in Mexico have risen, with average monthly incomes increasing by 10.6% from 2022 to 2024, and household spending on food averaging 5,994 pesos per month, accounting for nearly 38% of income. The tourism sector in Mexico also recorded a 0.3% growth in the first quarter of 2025. Despite these positive indicators, private sector analysts and Banxico project a cautious economic outlook for Mexico with a growth estimate of around 0.2% for 2025, reflecting a slowing economy. The IMF's upgraded global outlook is attributed to easing trade tensions and a weaker dollar cushioning tariff impacts, although it warns of ongoing risks and uncertainties in US policies.

The German economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, double the initial estimate, according to official data released Friday. The upward revision was attributed to a surge in exports and consumer spending in March, as businesses and exporters accelerated activity ahead of newly imposed U.S. tariffs. Private consumption rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, capital investment increased by 0.9%, and government spending declined by 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, GDP was down 0.2%. In the United Kingdom, retail sales rose by 1.2% month-on-month in April 2025, exceeding economists' expectations. Excluding auto fuel, retail sales increased 1.3% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year. Overall retail sales were up 5% year-on-year. The growth was driven by strong food sales, attributed to unusually warm and sunny weather, and was accompanied by an improvement in consumer confidence in May. In the United States, new home sales surged in April 2025, rising 10.9% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units, the highest level since February 2022. This increase was largely due to builders lowering prices to attract buyers, despite mortgage rates remaining near 7%. The median sales price for new homes in April was $407,200, down 2% from a year earlier, with inventory at 504,000 units. New home sales were up 3.3% year-on-year. However, sales of previously owned homes fell 0.5% in April to an annual rate of 4 million units, down 2% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace for that month since 2009. The median sales price for existing homes reached $414,000, with inventory at 1.45 million units and a 4.4-month supply. Ongoing affordability constraints, elevated mortgage rates, and rising prices continue to weigh on the broader housing market. In Canada, retail sales increased by 0.8% in March 2025 to $69.8 billion, led by vehicle and parts sales as consumers acted ahead of new tariffs. Sales were up in six of nine subsectors. Core retail sales, excluding autos and fuel, rose 0.2% in March but fell 0.7% month-on-month. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for April points to a further 0.5% rise.

Argentina's economy demonstrated robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). This growth rate surpasses China's 5.4% GDP increase during the same period and is noted as the highest in the Western world. Quarter-over-quarter, Argentina's GDP expanded by 0.8%. The growth was driven by a 31.8% rise in private investment, mainly in machinery, equipment, and transportation, and an 11.6% increase in private consumption, which reached a historical high. Government consumption, however, declined by 0.8%. Inflation has moderated, with May 2025 recording a monthly rate of 1.5%, the lowest in over five years. Real wages improved significantly, with a 74.3% year-on-year increase in salaries in April compared to 47.3% inflation, resulting in an 18.3% real gain. Social indicators also showed improvement: poverty rates fell from 54.8% in early 2024 to 31.7% in the first quarter of 2025, and indigence dropped from 20.2% to 7.3%. Income inequality decreased, with the Gini coefficient declining from 0.463 to 0.435 over the same period. Despite these positive trends, Argentina recorded a current account deficit of $5.191 billion in Q1 2025, exceeding the $2.7 billion projected for the entire year under the recent IMF agreement. These economic developments have been attributed to the policies of President Javier Milei's administration, which took office amid high poverty and inflation levels.

Britain’s economy shrank for a second consecutive month in May, with gross domestic product contracting 0.1% from April, official data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. The drop followed a 0.3% decline in April and wrong-footed economists, who had expected a 0.1% rebound. A 0.9% slide in industrial production and a 0.6% fall in construction outweighed a marginal 0.1% rise in services activity. Manufacturing output fell 1.0% on the month, reversing some of the front-loaded gains seen earlier in the year as firms raced to beat higher U.S. import tariffs. The back-to-back contractions deepen concern that overall output may slip in the second quarter, eroding the strong start the economy recorded in the first three months of 2025. Analysts said the weak May figures bolster expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates at its August meeting to support growth. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves described the data as "disappointing" but reiterated the government’s pledge to “kick-start” expansion. Economists cautioned that higher domestic taxes and lingering trade friction are clouding the outlook, leaving policymakers with limited room to avert further softening in the months ahead.