Gold held just below the $3,400-an-ounce mark on Thursday, consolidating a two-day rally as investors positioned for Friday’s U.S. personal-consumption-expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Spot bullion was last quoted at $3,399.60 an ounce after touching $3,401.73, its highest level since Aug. 11. The dollar index slipped 0.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.23%, providing modest support for the non-yielding metal. Economists polled by Reuters expect PCE inflation to rise 2.6% year on year in July, matching June. Derivatives tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool assign an 87% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Gold, which pays no interest, typically benefits when borrowing costs fall or when expectations of easier policy firm up. Traders are also weighing President Donald Trump’s effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a move Cook has vowed to contest in court. The dispute has revived concerns about the central bank’s independence, a factor analysts say could enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge against policy uncertainty. In other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.5% to $38.82 an ounce, platinum was little changed at $1,345.75 and palladium added 0.4% to $1,096.29. Gold has traded in a relatively tight range since setting a record above $3,500 in April, with investors awaiting clearer signals on U.S. inflation, monetary policy and political risk.

The U.S. Commerce Department is scheduled to release July figures for the personal consumption expenditures price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday. The PCE gauge, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to show headline prices up 2.6% from a year earlier, with the core measure excluding food and energy seen at 2.9%, according to economists’ consensus estimates. Investors view the report as a key indicator of whether inflation is continuing to drift toward the Fed’s 2% target following the 145% tariff on Chinese imports that took effect in April. Evidence of tariff-related price pressures could complicate the policy outlook, though markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller this week reiterated his preference to begin lowering borrowing costs next month and signaled that additional easing may follow. A softer-than-expected PCE reading would likely reinforce those expectations, while a surprise acceleration could prompt investors to scale back wagers on a near-term cut.

The U.S. Commerce Department said its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in July, keeping the annual headline rate at 2.6% and broadly in line with economists’ projections. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index—closely watched by the Federal Reserve—advanced 0.3% on the month and 2.9% from a year earlier, the steepest yearly reading since February but exactly matching consensus forecasts. July marked the third consecutive monthly increase in the core gauge. Household demand remained firm: nominal personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, while real spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.3%. Personal income gained 0.4% following a 0.3% rise in June, and the personal savings rate held at 4.4%. Although inflation continues to moderate from its 2024 highs, both headline and core readings remain above the Fed’s 2% objective. The figures come less than three weeks before policymakers meet in September, a gathering at which investors expect another interest-rate cut.

Asian equities were mixed on Friday after Wall Street’s major benchmarks notched fresh records, with investors reluctant to take strong positions ahead of the United States’ July personal-consumption-expenditures inflation report. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%, Australia’s ASX 200 edged 0.1% lower and South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.4%, while futures pointed to modest gains in Hong Kong. Shanghai and Shenzhen benchmarks also traded slightly higher. The caution followed another positive U.S. session in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.16% to 45,636.90, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 6,501.86 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.53% to 21,705.16—each setting a record close. Chipmaker Nvidia’s 56% jump in quarterly revenue underpinned the broader AI theme that has propelled U.S. equities this year. Attention now turns to the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, due at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists expect headline PCE to rise 2.6% year-on-year and core PCE to accelerate to 2.9%. A figure below forecasts could reinforce wagers on a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting; a stronger reading could temper those bets. Some analysts warn that the 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports, which took effect in April, may be filtering into consumer prices and could complicate the Fed’s path. Futures markets still assign better than an 80% probability to a September cut, but traders will recalibrate positions once the inflation data are released.

The U.S. is set to release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, on August 29, 2025. Economists forecast the headline year-over-year PCE inflation rate to remain steady at 2.6%, the same as the previous month. Market watchers emphasize the importance of this report for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. A rise in inflation could compel the Fed to maintain or raise rates, while a steady or lower reading might strengthen arguments for easing. The PCE data follows a positive GDP reading, adding complexity to the Fed's decision-making. Real-time inflation estimates from sources like Truflation suggest a current PCE rate of approximately 2.71%, slightly above the forecast, highlighting the dynamic nature of inflation tracking. Wall Street closed strongly ahead of the report, reflecting investor anticipation.

The US dollar has weakened throughout August amid increasing market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September. The dollar index steadied near 97.9 as investors awaited the release of July's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Core PCE inflation is anticipated to rise 2.9% year-over-year, marking the fastest increase in five months. Revised second-quarter GDP data showed an uptick driven by trade and investment. The dollar's decline is expected to result in a roughly 2% monthly drop for August, following its best monthly performance earlier this year. Concurrently, gold prices have risen, reaching a five-week peak near $3,400, supported by the softer dollar and optimism over potential Fed rate cuts. Market participants remain pragmatic amid concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and the broader economic outlook.

U.S. inflation accelerated in June, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The core personal consumption expenditures price index—watched closely by the Federal Reserve—rose 0.3% from May and 2.8% from a year earlier, topping economists’ expectations and marking the highest annual pace since February. Headline PCE, which includes food and energy, also increased 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, up from 2.3% in May. The report landed one day after the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing uncertainty over the trajectory of prices following the Biden administration’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods that took effect in April. June’s figures extend core PCE’s streak above the central bank’s 2% target to 52 consecutive months and could complicate officials’ deliberations on the timing of any rate cuts. May data, published last month, had shown core PCE running at 2.7% year-on-year with headline inflation at 2.3%, suggesting price pressures were already firming before the latest uptick. Economists are divided on how deeply the tariffs will feed through to consumer costs, but most expect the central bank to await several more readings before altering its policy stance.

Wall Street economists are lifting forecasts for July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index after both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index came in stronger than anticipated this week. The PCE gauge, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on 29 Aug. RSM US now projects the headline and core PCE price measures to rise 0.35% in July, implying annual rates of 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Bank of America tracks core PCE at a 0.30% monthly increase, while Goldman Sachs sees a 0.27% advance. One strategist cautioned that if the monthly gain reached 0.6%, the annualised rate would jump above 7%. The upward revisions underscore concerns that underlying price pressures may re-accelerate, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to restoring inflation to its 2% target. Policymakers will have two more inflation reports, including the forthcoming PCE figures, before their September meeting.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, showed an increase in June 2025, rising 2.6% year-over-year compared to 2.4% in May. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, edged up slightly to 2.8% from the previous month. Additionally, the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate rose to 2.68% for the 12 months ending in June, up from 2.57% in May. This uptick in inflation is attributed in part to increased tariffs, which have contributed to higher consumer prices, including a surge in grocery costs for certain foods. Analysts have noted that tariffs could further elevate prices during the holiday season.

The US economy showed mixed signals in recent data releases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June increased by 2.6% year-over-year, slightly above the forecast of 2.5% and up from the previous 2.3%. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% year-over-year, also surpassing the expected 2.7% and remaining steady compared to the prior month. Month-over-month, both PCE and core PCE indices grew by 0.3%, matching expectations and accelerating from previous increases of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, US labor market data for July indicated a slowdown in job growth with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, in line with forecasts but up from 4.1% in June. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, both slightly above estimates and previous figures. Labor force participation edged down slightly to 62.2%. In Japan, the June unemployment rate held steady at 2.5%, meeting expectations, while the jobs-to-applicant ratio fell modestly to 1.22 from 1.24, slightly below the forecast of 1.25, suggesting a modest cooling in the labor market. In the Eurozone, preliminary inflation data showed the consumer price index (CPI) year-over-year at 2.0%, marginally above the forecast of 1.9%, with core CPI steady at 2.3%, matching expectations and the previous reading.

U.S. consumer prices rose again in May, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to potential interest-rate cuts. The Commerce Department said the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred gauge—advanced 0.1% from April and 2.3% from a year earlier, up from 2.1% in April. Excluding food and energy, core PCE climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year, topping economists’ expectations of 2.6% and marking the 51st straight month above the Fed’s 2% goal. Services prices were 3.4% higher than a year ago, while goods prices edged up 0.1%. The report also pointed to softer household demand. Real consumer outlays fell 0.3% after a slight gain in April, and nominal spending declined 0.1%, the first contraction since January. Personal income dropped 0.4%, partly reflecting a one-time adjustment to Social Security payments and a pullback in auto purchases that had been accelerated ahead of higher tariffs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers earlier this week that policymakers are “well-positioned to wait” before lowering rates. After the data, futures markets priced the probability of a July rate cut at about 23%, with traders still expecting at least one reduction by September.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in May 2025, up from 2.1% in April, according to the Commerce Department. The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, increased to 2.7% annually in May from 2.6% in April, exceeding expectations. Monthly increases were 0.18% for core PCE and 0.14% for headline PCE. The Cleveland Fed's median PCE inflation rate for May annualized to 2.6%, the lowest since July 2024, while the 12-month reading remained around 3%. The Dallas Fed reported a trimmed mean PCE of 2.0% in May, down from 2.7% previously. Additionally, the supercore PCE price index rose to 3.12% year-over-year. Despite some measures indicating a recent moderation in inflation over the past three months, overall inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting limited scope for an interest rate cut in the near term.