Putin Acknowledges Recession Risk, Targets 7% Inflation for Russia
President Vladimir Putin acknowledged for the first time that Russia faces the threat of economic stagnation and “even recession,” telling the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on 20 June that such an outcome “must not be allowed under any circumstances.” He said the government’s priority is to steer the economy toward “balanced growth,” combining moderate inflation with low unemployment.
Putin noted that annual inflation eased to 9.6% as of 16 June, a result he described as better than experts had predicted. He forecast price growth to slow further to about 7% by the end of 2025 and promised policy steps to safeguard purchasing power while sustaining expansion.
Official data show momentum already weakening: gross domestic product grew just 1.4% in the first quarter, the slowest pace in two years after gains of 4.1% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2023. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned the forum that the country is “on the brink of recession” and pressed for lower borrowing costs to revive investment.
The Bank of Russia trimmed its key interest rate this month to 20% from 21%, the first reduction since 2022, yet business leaders and several cabinet members argued the cost of credit remains too high. Central-bank officials defended the tight stance as necessary to tame elevated prices, underscoring a growing policy rift over how to revive growth.
Responding to criticism that wartime defence spending is propping up activity, Putin said recent expansion has been broad-based, citing agriculture, construction, logistics, services, finance and information technology. Economists cautioned, however, that heavy military outlays have lost their stimulative impact and that fresh measures will be needed to avert a downturn.