Nigel Farage’s Reform UK captured the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat, winning 38.3% of ballots—six more than Labour—after an overnight recount. The seat, Labour’s 49th-safest, had recorded a majority of roughly 15,000 at last year’s general election. The knife-edge Westminster gain coincided with sweeping advances in England’s local elections. By Friday evening Reform had secured more than 600 councillors, up from none, and taken control of seven county councils, including long-standing Labour bastions such as Durham as well as Conservative strongholds such as Kent and Staffordshire. The party also won the new Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty. Sky News’ projected national vote share put Reform on about 32%, leaving Labour and the Conservatives at 19% and 18% respectively after both parties shed hundreds of council seats. The Conservatives lost overall control in multiple shires, while Labour fell to third place across swathes of northern England. The results, the first electoral test for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer since the 2024 general election, underline the peril facing the UK’s two traditional parties ahead of the next nationwide contest due in 2029. Farage said the outcome signalled “the beginning of the end of the Conservative Party” and vowed to press his challenge across Britain.

Labour's loss of the Runcorn seat has been attributed to the party's leadership decisions, particularly the cuts to the winter fuel allowance and disability benefits. Several Labour figures have acknowledged that these policy choices alienated traditional voters, contributing to the defeat. Calls have been made within the party to reverse these cuts, restore the winter fuel allowance, end arms sales to Israel, scrap the two-child benefit cap, and increase taxes on the super-rich. The loss in Runcorn is seen as a reflection of broader dissatisfaction with the party's direction, with critics emphasizing the need to learn from these mistakes rather than repeat them.

Nigel Farage has publicly urged Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch to remain in her leadership position. Speaking to Sky News following his electoral success in Runcorn, a traditionally Labour-supporting area, Farage emphasized the importance of Badenoch staying on as leader. He expressed willingness to financially support her to maintain her leadership role and criticized the Conservative Party, stating that in many parts of the country, a vote for the Tories effectively results in a Labour win, describing the party as "a waste of space." Farage's comments come amid discussions about the future leadership of the Conservative Party.

The Runcorn and Helsby by-election recorded a voter turnout of 46.3%, marking a decrease from the 58.7% turnout in the 2024 general election. A total of 32,740 votes were cast, exceeding some pre-election models that predicted between 23,000 and 29,000 votes. While the turnout is 13 percentage points lower than the previous general election, it remains relatively high for a by-election, comparable to the turnout seen in Uxbridge during the last Parliament. This level of participation suggests a potentially high-stakes election with notable voter enthusiasm and effective get-out-the-vote efforts, although it remains unclear which political side this may have favored.

The Labour Party is actively campaigning for the upcoming by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, scheduled for May 1, 2025. Key candidate Karen Shore is receiving support from various Labour MPs, including Mike Kane and Stephen Morgan, who emphasize her local ties and commitment to addressing community issues. Campaign activities have included door-to-door outreach, with party members engaging with voters to discuss Shore's plans for the area. The Labour Party is urging residents to vote for Shore as a means of effecting real change in the constituency, particularly in light of competition from other parties, including the Reform Party led by Nigel Farage.

A leading Conservative MP has suggested that the party should allow the Reform Party to win the upcoming Runcorn by-election as part of a broader electoral strategy. In leaked audio from a Tory dinner, Esther McVey indicated that some Conservative members hold dual memberships with Reform and proposed a non-aggression pact to avoid splitting the vote, given the Tories' low chances of winning the seat. The Conservatives' probability of securing the Runcorn seat is estimated at only 10%. This revelation has sparked discussions about potential backroom deals, with criticism from within the party regarding transparency. Meanwhile, Stephen Hartley, a Reform candidate, has stepped down after being criticized for past comments about Jimmy Saville, raising questions about candidate vetting processes.

Reform UK has recently surpassed the Conservative Party in membership numbers, becoming the second-largest political party in the UK with 120,549 members as of December 23, 2024. This shift highlights a growing fragmentation within the right-wing political landscape. The party is positioning itself to contest the upcoming by-election in Runcorn, a seat traditionally held by Labour, which is considered their 16th safest seat. Local sentiments indicate that dissatisfaction with Labour's policies may drive voters towards Reform UK, as residents express concerns over job losses and closed shops. Prominent figures such as Nigel Farage and Richard Tice are advocating for Reform UK, emphasizing the need for change in Lincolnshire and other areas. The party is gearing up for elections in regions perceived as favorable for their platform, with significant attention on the Runcorn constituency, where they aim to capitalize on Labour's declining support.

Reform UK has announced Sarah Pochin as its candidate for the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pochin, a former magistrate and ex-Conservative councillor in Cheshire East, aims to bring change to the area, which has been under Labour control. The by-election is set to challenge Labour's hold on the seat, which is considered their 16th safest. Pochin's candidacy has stirred controversy due to her past affiliations and actions. She was previously expelled from the Conservative Party and has been criticized for her lenient sentencing as a magistrate, particularly in a case involving a migrant drink driver where she stated, 'It is what it is. Do not be too hard on yourself. Unfortunately, we all get ourselves into problems.' Additionally, Pochin's attendance at events supporting refugees and drag queen story hours has led to her deleting her X account amid scrutiny. The by-election will also see competition from other major parties, including Labour, represented by Karen Shore, the Conservatives with Sean Houlston, the Greens with Chris Copeman, and the Liberal Democrats with Paul Duffy. The outcome of this by-election could have implications for Reform UK's standing in British politics.

The Labour Party has announced Karen Shore as its candidate for the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election, following the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury, who stepped down after being convicted of assault. Shore, a retired teacher and the Deputy Leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, was selected to defend the seat. A recent constituency poll indicates that Nigel Farage's Reform Party is leading with 40% support, compared to Labour's 35%, suggesting a competitive race ahead.

Zia Yusuf, the Chairman of Reform UK, is facing scrutiny and controversy regarding his leadership and background. Critics, including some members of the Workers Party, have raised concerns about Yusuf's suitability for the role, citing his Muslim faith and background as a Scottish-born individual of Sri Lankan descent. These criticisms come amid discussions about the party's direction and its association with Nigel Farage, who serves as a director. Supporters of Yusuf have condemned the backlash as racist and Islamophobic, emphasizing the need for solidarity against such attacks. Meanwhile, the Workers Party is mobilizing support in Runcorn, where local candidate Peter Ford is challenging incumbent MP Mike Amesbury, calling for a by-election to address local governance issues. The political landscape remains tense as parties navigate internal and external challenges, including allegations of connections to the World Economic Forum by Yusuf.

Independent MP Mike Amesbury, representing the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison for assaulting a constituent. The incident, which involved Amesbury repeatedly punching the individual in a drunken altercation, has triggered a recall petition. If 10% of constituents sign it, a by-election will be held. Amesbury, who had a 14,696 vote majority in the 2024 general election, was suspended by Labour and has been sitting as an independent MP since the incident. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is positioning itself as the leading contender to win the seat in the potential by-election. Bookmakers have placed Reform as the odds-on favorite at 10/11, with Labour trailing at 6/4. Reform has been actively campaigning in the area every weekend and has used digital billboards to call for Amesbury's resignation and urge constituents to sign the recall petition. Labour has condemned Amesbury's actions and confirmed it will field a new candidate if a by-election occurs. The seat, which Labour won by a significant majority in 2024, presents a challenge for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership as the party faces competition from Reform UK.

Reform UK is calling for the immediate resignation of MP Mike Amesbury to facilitate a by-election. Zia Yusuf, chairman of Reform UK, emphasized the need for Amesbury to act honorably in his departure. The party has taken to the streets of Runcorn, employing a digital billboard to amplify their demand for Amesbury's resignation, which they believe is necessary for addressing what they describe as a broken Britain. The campaign aims to put pressure on Amesbury and draw attention to the party's reform agenda.