Russia pumped about 9.13 million barrels of crude a day in July, according to people familiar with preliminary data, marginally exceeding the level implied by its OPEC+ commitments. Moscow’s formal quota for the month was 9.240 million barrels a day, but the government had also pledged an additional 137,000-barrel-a-day ‘compensation cut’ to make up for earlier overproduction, bringing the effective ceiling to roughly 9.10 million barrels. The slight over-run comes as the Kremlin faces conflicting pressures from the oil alliance to restrain supply and from the domestic budget to maximise revenues. Finance Ministry figures released Tuesday show federal income from oil and gas climbed to 787.3 billion rubles ($8.9 billion) in July, up sharply from 494.8 billion rubles in June. Nonetheless, oil-related tax receipts fell almost 33% from a year earlier to 710.4 billion rubles, reflecting lower global prices and a stronger ruble. Russia has pledged to submit detailed production data to the OPEC+ monitoring committee later this month. Any further deviation from its target could complicate the bloc’s efforts to keep global crude markets balanced after prices slipped below $80 a barrel in recent weeks.

Russia raised regulated tariffs for housing and communal services on 1 July under a government directive approved last November, implementing its biggest annual hike in several years. The Federal Antimonopoly Service said the nationwide average increase is about 11.9-12 percent, compared with 9.8 percent in 2024 and 8.1 percent in 2023. The federal cap allows regional authorities to lift rates between 8.6 percent and 21.1 percent, but exceptions push the jump higher: Moscow and St. Petersburg face 15 percent increases, while cities such as Omsk and Izhevsk approach 40 percent. In some regions overall payment growth could reach 25 percent. Household gas charges rise by an average 10.3 percent. Officials say the indexation is needed to cover rising fuel and equipment costs and to finance long-deferred upgrades to ageing infrastructure. The FAS has pledged to police compliance with the ceiling indices and roll back any unlawful surcharges, noting that tariff claw-backs saved consumers 29.2 billion rubles last year.

Over the past three years, Russia has confiscated approximately $50 billion in assets, equivalent to about 2% of its GDP, according to reports from Kommersant and Bloomberg. The Kremlin's asset seizures target both foreign strategic companies and domestic businesses, including those linked to organized crime, citing national security concerns. This aggressive campaign to appropriate assets aims to bolster the federal budget amid a slowing economy and depleted state coffers. In 2025, Russia is allocating around 40% of its federal budget, estimated at $170 billion, to fund its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's economy is on the verge of entering a recession, according to Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Reshetnikov warned that current business perceptions indicate the country is at the brink of a recession, with an increasing number of companies at risk. He described the economy as cooling down after a period of overheating, emphasizing that future monetary policy decisions will be critical in determining whether Russia falls into a recession. Despite the minister's warnings, other officials, including Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina, have characterized the economic situation as a controlled cooling or an exit from an overheated state rather than an impending recession. Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the risks of stagnation and recession but stressed that under no circumstances should Russia allow its economy to enter a recession. He has urged economic officials to prevent such an outcome, underscoring the importance of decisive action to stabilize the economy amid ongoing challenges, including the impacts of the war and limited investment outside the military sector.

Russia increased its combat drone production by approximately 17% in May 2025 compared to the previous month, according to data from a think tank close to the government. The production volume is now 1.6 times higher than it was in the previous year. This surge in drone manufacturing follows a call from President Vladimir Putin to boost output. Additionally, preparations are underway for a contract to supply tens of thousands of drones intended for long-range strike operations within Russia.

Russia is renewing efforts to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports despite US sanctions that had stalled progress last year. An LNG ice-class tanker recently docked at Russia's Arctic LNG 2 facility for the first time since October 2024, signaling a restart of operations. The Arctic LNG 2 project, which is under US sanctions, has raised production to record levels in late June 2025, with cargoes being loaded and shipped. Russia is deploying a so-called "shadow fleet" of LNG carriers to support these exports. Meanwhile, Russian LNG exports fell 4.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and pipeline gas exports to Europe declined 18% month-on-month in June, reaching levels not seen since the early 1970s. Gazprom shipped just 8.33 billion cubic meters of gas to European clients in the first half of the year, with deliveries via the Turkish Stream pipeline down 47% from last year. Gazprom is reportedly left with 60 billion cubic meters of unsold gas, incurring losses estimated at 1 trillion rubles. Despite these challenges, Russian LNG carriers are actively delivering gas to Asian markets, with one vessel crossing the Arctic Ocean in just 10 days.

Russia said it will distribute additional oil-production curbs across the rest of this year and into 2025 as part of its commitment to the OPEC+ supply-management pact. The Energy Ministry outlined monthly reductions of 85,000 barrels a day from July through November, followed by a further 9,000-barrel cut in December. Officials added that the overall volume would be balanced across 2025 to ensure Moscow meets its pledged output target while maintaining stability in the domestic market. The announcement came as separate data compiled by industry sources and Reuters showed Russia’s seaborne oil-product exports fell 6.6% in July from the previous month to 8.67 million metric tons. Analysts attributed the decline to planned refinery maintenance and stronger domestic demand, factors that may also have influenced the government’s decision to phase in the new production restraints.

Russia has canceled its annual naval parade in St. Petersburg for the first time since the event's inception in 2017. The cancellation, attributed to security concerns, was reported by multiple Russian and international news outlets, including Fontanka and Reuters. Preparations for the parade, which showcases Russia's naval power with surface ships and submarines, were halted about two days before the scheduled event. The decision also extended to the nationwide cancellation of ship parades and fireworks on Russia's Navy Day. The Kremlin officially confirmed the cancellation citing security reasons.

The Russian government has expressed its readiness to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Mexico and to share advanced technologies across the entire energy production chain. According to statements from the Russian Energy Minister and the Russian Embassy in Mexico, this cooperation includes technology transfer for petroleum extraction, refining, and electricity generation. Currently, Mexico imports more than 70% of its natural gas from the United States. The offer from Russia aims to enhance Mexico's energy sector efficiency and diversify its energy sources. Additionally, Russia, along with Venezuela and Iran, is considered by the head of Rosneft to be crucial for global energy security. This development aligns with Russia's broader strategy to expand energy trade partnerships beyond traditional markets.

Russia's oil and gas budget revenues have declined sharply, falling by approximately one-third year-on-year in June 2025 to 494.8 billion rubles ($6.3 billion), marking the lowest level since January 2023. This decline is attributed to weaker global crude prices and a stronger ruble, which have pressured the country's energy sector and federal finances. Oil industry income specifically dropped nearly 30% to between 415.6 billion rubles ($5.3 billion) and $5.4 billion in June, according to various reports including Bloomberg and Reuters. The first half of 2025 saw a 17% decrease in oil and gas revenues overall. The reduced revenues are straining Russia's war economy and contributing to a growing government deficit, which may reach 3.8 trillion rubles ($48.7 billion) by the end of the year. Looking ahead, Russia's oil and gas revenue is expected to fall further by 37% year-on-year in July 2025, to approximately 680 billion rubles ($8.66 billion), driven by continued lower oil prices and currency strength.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated in an interview with RT's Rick Sanchez that Russia's economy has grown by over 4%, surpassing the global average. He attributed this growth to investments in key economic sectors and support for the population, which led to a 7% rise in real incomes. Siluanov highlighted Russia's strong financial position, with reserves, low debt, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 50%, one of the best in the G20. He emphasized that Western sanctions, described as the hardest in history, have backfired and accelerated Russia's pivot towards the East, particularly Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. Despite a $60 price cap on Russian oil imposed by secondary sanctions, Russia remains a major player in the global market. The minister also noted that Russia is self-sufficient in resources and has redirected trade to BRICS countries while developing technological sovereignty. Addressing concerns about a recession, Siluanov clarified that Russia is not in recession but is undergoing a planned economic cooling to curb inflation from overheating industries, which has been effective as inflation has decreased. He criticized EU powers for harming themselves in efforts to hurt Russia and stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted increased investment in previously sanctioned industries to reduce dependency on imports.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that the country's moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles, established after the collapse of the 1987 INF Treaty with the United States, is approaching its logical conclusion. Ryabkov stated that Western countries, including the US and its allies, did not appreciate Russia's restraint in this matter. He emphasized that Russia is compelled to respond to new and sensitive missile threats posed by increased Western activity in deploying such missiles. The Kremlin has reiterated that Russia reserves the right to act freely regarding the deployment of medium- and short-range missiles and may use them if necessary. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the growing importance of biological security amid global instability and called for strengthening mechanisms to contain the development of weapons of mass destruction based on pathogenic microorganisms. Russia has ruled out resuming the nuclear arms treaty with the United States, reflecting ongoing tensions in arms control negotiations.