U.S. Stock Market Hits Record Valuations with S&P 500 Shiller P/E at 38.7x and Market Cap to GDP at 211%, Housing Market Unaffordability Also Hits Record
The U.S. stock market has reached its highest valuation levels in history, surpassing the peaks seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and the 1929 run-up to the Great Depression. Key valuation metrics have hit record highs: the S&P 500 Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 38.7 to 39 times, the highest in 25 years and well above its long-term average of 17.6. The S&P 500 Price-to-Sales ratio reached a record 3.4 times, exceeding the Dot-Com peak. The S&P 500 Price-to-Book ratio hit 5.3 times, surpassing the 2000 peak of 5.1. Market concentration is also unprecedented, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 40% of the S&P 500, compared to 27% during the Dot-Com Bubble, despite generating only 30% of the index's earnings. The NASDAQ market capitalization relative to U.S. GDP has reached 127%, nearly double the Dot-Com peak, and its market cap relative to the M2 money supply hit a record 176%. The overall U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio, often referred to as Warren Buffett’s indicator, stands at 211%, a record high and 70 percentage points above the Dot-Com peak. Forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 are also elevated at 22.5 times, the second-highest since 2000. Analysts warn that these valuations suggest lower-than-average future returns. Concurrently, the U.S. housing market has become the most unaffordable in history, with homeownership costs at their highest since the 1980s. This surge in unaffordability is attributed to aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which pushed mortgage rates from around 2.5-3% to approximately 7%. Despite a recent dip in the 30-year mortgage rate to a 10-month low, affordability remains strained. Additionally, U.S. home prices have entered what some describe as the largest housing bubble in history. Market dynamics also show a widening gap in net long positions between the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 indexes, indicating concentrated investor positioning in tech stocks.